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Erdsystem

Klima-Kipppunkte — Die kaskadenden Schwellen

Climate Tipping Points — The Cascading Thresholds

Zuletzt aktualisiert: 15. Juli 2026

📌 Zusammenfassung

The "Global Tipping Points Report 2025" (160 scientists, 23 countries) identifies critical thresholds that, once crossed, trigger self-reinforcing changes. Coral reefs have already tipped. Five more tipping points are at risk near 1.5°C: Greenland ice, West Antarctic ice, AMOC, Amazon rainforest, and permafrost.

🔬 Wichtigste Erkenntnisse

  • 1Warm-water coral reefs have ALREADY crossed their tipping point at current ~1.4°C warming
  • 25 tipping points at risk near 1.5°C: Greenland, AMOC, Amazon, West Antarctica, Permafrost
  • 3Overshooting 1.5°C (now considered almost unavoidable in late 2020s/early 2030s) could trigger multiple tipping points
  • 4Greenland melting 7× faster than 30 years ago (~234 billion tons/year)
  • 5Amazon: lower bound of tipping threshold lowered to 1.5°C; 17% already deforested
  • 6Permafrost contains ~1,400 billion tons of carbon — thawing creates self-reinforcing feedback
  • 7West Antarctic: marine ice sheet instability potentially underway (Thwaites Glacier)
  • 8Tipping cascades: one tipping point can increase the probability of others

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Ozeane & Strömungen

AMOC — Kippt die Atlantische Meereszirkulation?

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is one of Earth's most critical climate systems. It transports warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic, keeping Europe significantly warmer than it would otherwise be. Recent science (2024-2026) indicates it is weakening and approaching a tipping point much earlier than previously assumed.

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Temperaturen

Globale Temperatur-Rekorde — Wo stehen wir?

2024 was the warmest year ever recorded, exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time. The last 10 years (2015-2024) were the 10 warmest on record. Despite La Niña cooling, 2025 remained the 3rd warmest year. The Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target is increasingly seen as breached.

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Ozeane & Strömungen

Meeresspiegel-Anstieg — Küstenstädte in Gefahr

Global sea level is rising faster than at any point in the last 3,000 years. Current rate: ~4.5mm/year (doubling every ~25 years). Projections for 2100 range from 30cm (best case) to over 2m (worst case with ice sheet collapse). Major cities at risk: Mumbai, Shanghai, Miami, New York, Jakarta, Bangkok, Lagos, Tokyo.

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Wetter

Extremwetter — Die neue Normalität

Every additional 0.5°C of warming leads to clearly discernible increases in the frequency and severity of heat extremes, heavy rainfall events, and regional droughts (IPCC AR6). The world is already experiencing unprecedented heatwaves, wildfires, floods, and storms at 1.5°C.

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